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THINK DIFFERENTLY

Market Commentary Aug 2023 Banner

Executive Summary

At a Glance ​

2025 Highlights

2025 rewarded discipline. Markets endured periods of sharp volatility and rapidly shifting narratives yet repeatedly regained their footing as the year progressed. Most asset classes delivered solid gains, led by strength in equities, while precious metals stood out on the upside. In contrast, the US dollar and oil lagged – reinforcing the importance of diversification and disciplined portfolio construction.

Against this backdrop, our balanced, risk-on stance allowed us to participate in recoveries without unnecessary disruption. Geographic diversification, combined with active adjustments as conditions evolved, helped to manage volatility. Even as April’s tariff escalation and the extent of US dollar weakness proved more pronounced than expected, our portfolios were designed for resilience, allowing us to look through short-term volatility and participate in the year’s gains.

 

Stability Amid VUCA

2026

Key Themes Shaping The Year

  • Artificial Intelligence: Hype to Impact
  • Bigger government, less globalization
  • Easing Monetary Policy
  • Risks bubbling under the surface

Economic Growth

Economies enter 2026 at a turning point. Artificial Intelligence is moving from hype to impact, supporting productivity and earnings growth across a widening range of industries. This provides a constructive backdrop for markets, even as leadership begins to broaden beyond a narrow set of winners.

At the same time, Governments are playing a larger role: through fiscal spending, industrial policy, and national security priorities, while globalization continues to unwind. Monetary policy remains supportive, with continued (but limited) easing expected.

 

Vuca

Beneath the surface, risks are bubbling and is worth monitoring closely. Geopolitical tensions, technological competition, elevated debt levels, and protectionism point to a world where shocks are more frequent and outcomes more uneven. Against this backdrop, opportunities remain compelling – but portfolio construction matters more than ever. Staying invested, while emphasizing diversification, resilience, and active risk management will be key to navigating the more complex investing environment today.

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