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Monthly Commentary
THINK DIFFERENTLY
Market Review
Naturally, questions of market timing surface in periods of decline (to sell or to invest, now or later). Investors should take heed that intra-year declines often pave the way to positive returns provided they refrain from engaging in market timing activities.
Our Alternatives positions meaningfully reduced portfolio declines relative to traditional portfolios that comprised only bonds and equities – highlighting the benefits of True Diversification.
Stability Amid VUCA
History has shown that investors who attempt to time a recession end up with lower returns than if they remained invested – markets delivered on average double-digit returns in the next 12 months following the yield curve inversion. It is best that investors remain fully invested given the negative trade-off between market timing and returns.
Our portfolios are structured around a few favourable themes, with the stability theme (comprising of Healthcare and Quality Value equities) being effective diversifiers particularly suitable for current volatility.
Positioning for Economic Growth
Such transitions are a reminder for the need to be forward-looking and opportunistic, rather than just settling for the status quo. In doing so, investors should expect to be rewarded over time, as with the case of leadership cycles that can span for years.
Our portfolios are positioned for this transition, slightly overweighting China ‘A’ equities while remaining invested in US equities where attractive opportunities lie (such as US small-caps).
Search For Yield
However, it is possible to know when markets are nearing the bottom, and it is investing during such periods that reward investors with returns greater than a buy & hold strategy – accuracy trumps precision. Such is the case with Asian High Yield (AHY) markets today.
We are positive that AHY remains a good investment at current beaten-down levels, having historically proven to rebound from crises. Such an opportunity have not been seen since the Global Financial Crisis.
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