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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
Q3 2025市场回顾
2025年第三季度,大多数主要资产类别均获得正回报,其中股票和贵金属领涨。标普500指数上涨8.1%,主要受关税升级程度低于预期以及美联储转向货币宽松政策的支撑。黄金在第三季度飙升16.8%,达到每盎司3,859美元的历史新高,创下十年来最强季度表现。美国国债同样录得正回报,上涨1.7%,10年期收益率下降8个基点,受益于美联储的鸽派转向。 美元在经历历史性上半年下跌后企稳,实现年内首个季度上涨。
前景展望
基准展望:在年底前风险资产将迎来”恰到好处”的环境,前提是避免出现”动荡”的降息周期。
美国最新ADP就业报告显示私营部门新增32,000个就业岗位——这一”温和”数据巩固了市场对0.25%降息的预期,为股市提供了支撑性顺风。
延长的美国政府停摆可能导致官方数据出现空白,可能引发短期波动,但市场历史上往往能从之前的停摆中意外恢复。
我们维持对风险资产的超配立场,辅以对冲头寸和黄金等防御性配置组合。
金发姑娘经济与三大风险
当前环境可被视为”金发姑娘经济”:经济活动降温但尚未陷入衰退,通胀有所缓和但仍在促使(大多数)央行保持谨慎的降息步伐。但潜在风险值得关注:
风险一:增长冲击:如果中国需求疲软(企业盈利失望)或就业市场突然破裂,当前的高估值将留下微小缓冲空间,并可能触发抛售。
风险二:政策不确定性:特朗普政府一直保持政策风险温和,即使更广泛的贸易紧张局势可能使市场感觉更加平静。但仍需保持警惕。
风险三:利率不确定性:即使通胀保持在2.5%附近,降息也不能保证。长期收益率的快速上升可能因财政赤字/信用担忧而进一步加剧利率压力。
收益格局变化
尽管市场共识认为收益率将持续下降,但我们对长期债券持谨慎态度,因为担忧美国赤字、增长和通胀。在收益率曲线的”甜蜜点”附近建立头寸,可帮助获得更持久的收益,同时避免大幅价格波动。收益率历史吸引力依然存在,以满足收入投资者需求,但”额外补偿”在当前环境下已大幅减少。采取主动的信用选择策略,以识别更高质量细分市场的优质收益/回报机会。
更多精彩时评
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