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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
市场回顾
4月市场出现了最强劲的反弹之一。地缘政治紧张局势的缓解引发了市场情绪修复式上涨,而随后强劲的财报数据迅速为这一涨势提供了基本面支撑。标普500指数中84%的公司业绩超出预期,企业利润率处于多年高位,这表明本轮复苏更多是源于企业真实的基本面韧性,而非单纯的情绪修复。强劲的盈利表现以及由人工智能持续引领的投资动能,推动全球股市普遍上涨,以科技股为主的市场(如标普500指数和韩国KOSPI指数)反弹尤为强劲。避险资产与债券表现落后:随着避险需求减弱,黄金价格走软;而由于收益率仍面临上行压力,固定收益类资产的涨幅较为有限。
展望:均衡、精选、灵活
基准情景依然是地缘政治紧张局势将持续缓解。然而,随着市场情绪已从审慎迅速转向乐观,短期内市场方向预计将更多由基本面而非新闻头条所驱动。
权益市场:我们保持大体中性、略偏积极的看法,在估值修复过程中,重点关注具有明确盈利可见性及结构性利好支撑的板块。债券市场:我们继续偏好短久期、更高质量的信用债,在通胀及政策前景明朗之前,避免过度承担久期风险。另类资产:黄金仍然是有效的投资组合对冲工具。同时,保险连接证券(ILS)能够提供具备韧性且相关性低的收益来源,进一步增强投资组合的分散化效果。
市场正在迷雾中前行
4月的市场表现表明,市场通常不会等到所有不确定性都消散后才开始复苏,这再次印证了在市场波动期间保持在场的重要性。最初由情绪修复驱动的反弹,在4月下半月找到了更坚实的基本面支撑——强劲的财报数据提供了可靠的基本面基础。美国财报季为人工智能热潮提供了重要洞察:预计2026年人工智能超大规模企业的资本支出将达到7510亿美元,较前一年增长约83%,这将为相关行业带来盈利增长动力。在迷雾中前行,不等于能看穿迷雾:油价虽已从高点回落,但仍处于高位,暗示地缘政治风险依然存在。在经历大幅反弹之后,下一阶段需要更高的选择性以及更强的投资组合韧性。
超越股债:另类资产
债券对于获取收益依然重要,但近期的市场压力事件——如2025年的“解放日”以及美伊冲突——暴露了单纯依赖传统股债分散化策略的局限性。随着债券与股票面临更多相同的宏观风险,另类资产可以提供差异化的回报来源,在不同市场环境中表现出不同的走势特征:
追求收益的投资者:可关注保险连接证券(ILS)和版权费等资产,这些资产的现金流由不同于传统债券的风险因素驱动,有助于构建更具韧性的收益型投资组合。
追求增长的投资者:可突破被动型股票配置,关注另类策略,如私募股权,这类策略能够参与长期价值创造,且对短期市场情绪敏感度较低。
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