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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
市场回顾
随着地缘政治担忧的缓解,市场企稳回升。美伊冲突的降级及油价回落帮助市场在动荡的季度开局后重拾风险偏好。 人工智能仍是市场的关键推动力。美国超大规模云服务商进一步上调支出计划,强化了市场对数据中心、芯片及相关基础设施需求作为持久增长主题的信心。 亚洲股市表现突出,韩国与台湾等市场在半导体需求的支撑下领涨。但由于持仓较为集中,预计波动将进一步加大。 避险资产走弱。随着地缘政治风险溢价消退、投资者重新转向股票及其他风险资产,大宗商品与贵金属价格回落。
展望:增长延续,风险犹存
增长依然稳健,但前路或不会一帆风顺。消费者与企业信心保持稳固,但通胀黏性与地缘政治风险可能引发阶段性波动。
权益市场:维持乐观,但日趋审慎。人工智能仍是强劲的结构性增长动力,但市场领涨板块或将从仓位拥挤的领域逐步扩散。 固定收益:企业债券继续提供具吸引力的收益,但信用利差收窄(估值上升)意味着未来回报将更依赖票息收益与审慎的个券选择。 分散配置依然关键:由于股票与债券的相关性不断上升,另类投资有助于增强投资组合的韧性。
市场的三大考验
市场从来不会仅由少数几个因素驱动。即便如此,在我们看来,以下三大考验将是下半年最关键的观察坐标:
地缘政治风险:油价回落及霍尔木兹海峡通行量的恢复表明最严重的冲击或已过去,但美伊之间的临时休战依然脆弱,谈判仍在进行中。 企业盈利与人工智能须兑现预期:对数据中心、芯片及电力基础设施的持续投入正在支撑经济增长,但即将到来的财报季将检验人工智能投资能否转化为足够的利润。 利率:利率路径的不确定性可能令市场持续处于紧张状态。通胀仍高于美联储目标,而前瞻指引减少意味着每次数据发布(如通胀、就业)都可能产生超乎寻常的影响。
收益可观,但需择优而取
收益依然具吸引力,但投资者目前因承担企业信用风险所获得的额外收益已经减少,一旦经济增长放缓或波动重现,可容错的空间也随之缩小。
注重质量与较短久期:在利率预期仍不明朗之际,我们青睐债券市场中3–5年期的细分板块及更高质量的信用债,它们能在较低波动下提供可观的收益。拓宽收益来源:精选投资级板块(包括证券化信用债)及新兴市场债券可增强投资组合的韧性。保险连结证券(ILS)、版权收益等另类收益来源可进一步提升投资组合的多元化,尤其是在市场承压时期。
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